Monday, November 2, 2009

Prediction: Corzine in a photo finish!

One the eve of the only poll that matters, the latest RCP average has the NJ Governor's race in a statistical tie. However, I predict the following keys to a Corzine win:

1. The Dems will leverage a 700K advantage in voter registrations with a superior ground game that will get enough of the party faithful to the polls to keep Corzine in Trenton.

2. Daggett will draw enough votes away from Christie to prevent him from what most likely would have been a victory had this been a two man race.

3. Corzine's popularity rating, while a net negative is trending up, while Christie's is trending down.

4. The difference in the gender gap for women +10 is big for Corzine. Christie's edge amongst men +7 is good, but not enough to overcome Corzine's advantage with women votes.

Of course I could be all wrong! Update: Actually I was all wrong!

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